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Table 1: Performance of Ukrainian Listed Companies in 2011

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Highlights

Constantly increasing demand for agricultural products, available room to expand production volumes provided improvement of crop yield, not to mention growing world grain prices make the Ukrainian grain trade market extremely attractive. The prospective UAH devaluation is also a catchy factor. Nevertheless there are possible drawbacks, namely contingency of cost increase, poor climate risk management and likely abolition of the land moratorium. However, these risks look quite remote and the overall outlook seems to be rather prosperous to a great extent.

 

Major Players and Partners

Ukrainian grain market aimed at exports. Total grain supply consists of production (92%) and initial stocks (8%).Grain consumption in Ukraine averaged 54% (56.7 MMT) of domestic output in 2011/2012 MY. Export potential of the grain industry was partially fulfilled taking into account transferable annual stored grain which stood at 15% of new output in 2011/2012 MY. Furthermore, exports could amount to potential 46.3% (25.7 MMT) of grain output against actual 39.7% (21.5 MMT).

Agriholdings are powerful grain manufacturers. Vertically integrated companies hold one fifth of the nonconcentrated market of grain production. Компанії залучають міжнародні синдиковані кредити для розширення мережі зернових терміналів (Нибулон,Кернел) та реалізації енергоефективних проектів (МХП,Астрарта), що допомагає закріпити їм позиції на ринку.Agriholdings generate a ROE of 21.8% as a result of diversification. Thus, manufactured grain is mostly used for further production needs (30% – feed, 5% – seeds), food consumption (11%), exports performed by grain traders that are not always a part of an agriholding (32%).

Table 1: Performance of Ukrainian Listed Companies in 2011

 

Company Landbank, ths ha under grain EBITDA/ ha, USD Gross margin EBITDA margin % of Grain in Revenue
MHP S.A.   78% 1432,1 29% 33% 9%
Astarta Holding NV   43% 617,4 40% 37% 26%
Kernel Holding SA   44% 1474,8 24% 16% 36%
Agroton Public Ltd   52% 143,8 47% 25% 32%
Sintal Agriculture PLC   61% 67,6 35% 21% n/a
                   

Source: Open data provided by the companies, Bloomberg, KNU estimates

High concentration of grain export market. The Top 5 traders provide 45% of grain exports (Top 10 traders supply 59%). Traders sell grain acquired from agriholdings to which they belong or from other companies. The traders demonstrate high profitability (44% ROE) due to a small part of equity capital (D/E ratio is 11.2%) and a high level of liquidity (current ratio – 2.1). In addition, own storage facilities strengthen a trader’s position. Yet it is significantly dependent upon transport outsourcing and state regulation. Thus, close ties with the government and export quotas provided leadership to Khlib Investbud in 2011.


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