Possibility, Reality and Probability

The directedness of development, the mechanism of appearance of the new are characterized by such categories as possibility, reality and probability.

Due to the aid of the categories of the possible and the real, thought comprehends the fact that matter is active, that it contin­ually acquires more and more new forms of existence, passing from one form or state into others, and that it conceals an infinite number of different potentials. Possibility is the future in the present, something which does not exist as a given qualitative definiteness but which may appear and exist, which may become a reality under definite conditions.

Reality is recorded by everyday consciousness as something existing at the given moment, i.e. in the present. And the present is interpreted as the real, as something that exists, rather than as something that is only becom­ing, that is in the process or on the path from the possible to the real.

The possible is in this case placed somewhere outside the present and, consequently, outside the real: it does not, as it were, exist re­ally, it is only conceived. At the level of everyday consciousness such an understanding of the possible and the real may be quite suffi­cient, without doubt. But the scientific or philosophical conscious­ness does not wish to be satisfied by this level of understanding.

The real is much broader than simply the present, than the "naked" factuality of being. Reality is not only that which has become or is, which has taken place, but also that which is con­tained in what exists as a possibility of its transformation into some­thing different.

Reality in the broad dialectical sense covers the possible, the pro­cess of creating the new, and its being. In the narrow categorical sense the real is interpreted as a realized possibility, something which has directly become something living and active.

Possibility is a tendency or rather latent tendency of the develop­ment of existing reality. If reality is the past in the present, possibility is the future in the present. Reality is the world of realized possi­bilities and the world of potential possibilities and between them lies the process of the transformation of potentialities into actual re­ality. In terms of time, possibility precedes reality, which, being a re­sult of development, is at the same time its starting point.

They distinguish formal and real possibilities. Real possibility is called that one, the conditions of which have already come or can come under some certain circumstances. The possibility is called abstract (formal) if under the existing state of the system it could not be changed. Real possibilities reflect regular tendencies of the development of an object; formal – insignificant tendencies, which do not have the necessary conditions to come. Formal possibility is realized when there are no other ones to realize. Thus formal and real possibilities are interconnected and develop into each other.

Probability is a measure of objective possi­bility, a degree of possible realization of a given event in given condi­tions and under a given law. It characterizes the degree to which a certain possibility is grounded, the measure of its ability to become reality, the degree of its closeness to realization, the correlation of favourable and negative factors. Probability indicates the degree to which a certain event is possible or in general impossible.

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