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Price dynamics index

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■ Local prices  
– Local prices were based on current Gazakh Cement prices, which are in line
with the market and with competitors. The forecast was based on the local
prices short-term expectations combined with long-term CPI forecast of EIU.
Given the expansion of the industry, and entrance of new market players, the   135.4

increase of cement supply will be higher than the increase in demand. This shift will drag local prices down (10% down within 2 years)

– Once the market will stabilize or, the increase in demand will push prices as per CPI

■ Export prices

– It was estimated that the main channel of export will be Georgia and some to Russia and Kazakhstan with a bit lower volumes due to the following:

■ Russia has its own cement plants with strong market positions

■ Transport costs to Kazakhstan are quite high. Despite this, management of GCP considers exports to Kazakhstan, as well


 

120

 

 


 

 

90.5


 

 

109.4

 

98.1


 

Local Export


 

129.4


■ Iran has oversupply on its market. Transport disadvantage and the low domestic prices for cement are the next factors making cement of GCP uncompetitive in Iran

– As Georgian cement market is rather stable, growing without any significant booms, it was assumed that current cement prices will grow along with CPI in Georgia. Export prices for GCP were based on current cement prices in Georgian market less transport costs, custom and import duties, broker and dealer margin assuming some discount for the entrance into market. Further EXW export prices were inflated in line with Georgian CPI and adjusted to GEL/AZN rate change based on EIU and IMF forecasts

– We checked the expected export prices with market and found them


Source: KPMG analysis based on Management, EIU and IMF data

    Cement type     Unit GEL/bag prices in GEL/bag prices in AZN/ton prices in
  bag 7.0 8.4 79.4
  bag 8.0 9.6 90.8
  bag 9.0 10.8 102.1
  bulk 10.6 10.6 99.9
Heidelberg bag 11.5 12.1 115.0

 
Cement prices in Georgia


reasonable (we added transport costs and custom duties and compared with the same prices at the border with Azerbaijan)

■ Survey results of cement prices in Georgia are provided to the right. Gazakh Cement Plant will be competing with two products (M400 and M420) with its CEM IV B/P 42.5 (or M425) cement bags


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